CANADA'S LEADING INFORMATION SOURCE FOR THE METALWORKING INDUSTRY

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CANADA'S LEADING INFORMATION SOURCE FOR THE METALWORKING INDUSTRY

CANADA'S LEADING INFORMATION SOURCE FOR THE METALWORKING INDUSTRY

Forward-looking indicators not in manufacturing’s favor: CME’s Arcand

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Despite the positive headline in the November Statistics Canada report, CME's Alan Arcand finds the underlying details “less reassuring”, especially the recent pullback in forward-looking indicators.

Manufacturing sales rose 1.2% to $71.7 billion in November, the fourth increase in five months. Sales in constant dollars, which closely track real manufacturing GDP, also climbed 1.6% during the month.

That’s not good enough, however, for Alan Arcand, chief economist with Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters.

Despite the positive headline in the November Statistics Canada report, Arcand finds the underlying details “less reassuring”, especially the recent pullback in forward-looking indicators. Moreover, most forecasts predict that the world economy will slow in 2024, which is typically bad news for the trade-oriented manufacturing sector, he adds.

The forward-looking indicators that were discouraging for Arcand included:

  • The total value of unfilled orders declined 0.8% to $101.5 billion in November, the fourth decline in five months. The pullback was largely attributable to lower unfilled orders of aerospace products and parts.
  • New orders fell 0.3% to $70.9 billion, down for the second month in a row.
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