Global electric vehicle production will increase almost tenfold by 2035, overtaking the production of vehicles with traditional internal combustion engines within the next decade, according to the experts speaking on a webinar about automotive industry trends, hosted by ABB Automotive.
The share of electric vehicle production is about 6% globally right now but by 2035 that is forecasted to grow to 50%, according to Joerg Reger, managing director, auto OEM, for ABB. That means global vehicle production is forecasted to grow from 8.36 million vehicles today to 82.56 million vehicles by 2035, a whopping 887.56% increase.
Reger was one of the panelists of the webinar Driving a Sustainable Future, which delved into the challenges posed by this growing market trend and how automotive OEMs and their suppliers will need to respond.
There are several global regions, led by Europe, where electric vehicle powerplants are expected to make shockingly large inroads by 2035. In Europe it is forecasted that 86% of the vehicles produced by 2035 will be electric. In the Asia Pacific region electric vehicles are expected to account for 64% of vehicles produced by 2035. Within the region, China, which represents the world’s single largest automotive market, is expected to show particularly significant growth. The increase in fully electric vehicle production in China is expected to increase 30% to a total of 37 million vehicles.
North America is expected to be the region with the third most heavy concentration of electric vehicle production. By 2035 it is expected that 45% of vehicles produced in North America will be electric.
“We are already behind. The western world has to catch up,” warned Reger in reference to the difference in the adoption of electric vehicles in North America versus Asia and Europe. He also pointed out that China’s anticipated strength in electric vehicle production is partly attributable to the fact its automotive manufacturers can focus directly on developing electric technology rather than still being tied to internal combustion engine legacy systems while managing the transition like North American and European car manufacturers will be.
The Middle East and Africa and South America are expected to be laggards in the transition to electric vehicle production. In the Middle East and Africa only 15% of vehicles produced by 2035 are expected to be powered by electric engines. In South America the transition will be the slowest. Only 10% of the vehicles produced in South America by 2035 will include electric powertrains.
While plug-in battery powered vehicles are expected to be the main type of electric vehicles by 2035, hydrogen-powered electric vehicles are also expected to grow in market share, particularly in large commercial vehicles.
By 2035 it is forecasted that hydrogen fuel cells will feature in 3% of light passenger vehicles, growing to a global production of 3.06 million vehicles. In the commercial vehicle market, however, the lighter weight and expected longer distance capabilities of the hydrogen fuel cell systems are anticipated to lead to greater market penetration. By 2035 hydrogen fuel cells are expected to have 20% of the large commercial vehicle market, accounting for up to 1.3 million vehicles.
ABB is a global technology company with a focus on connecting software to its electrification, robotics, automation and motion portfolios to push the boundaries of technology in driving performance.