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Bombardier sees a bright horizon for its business aircraft business. It predicts it will deliver 24,000 jets worth $626 billion in its 20-year industry delivery forecast.

The forecast is part of the company’s 2011 edition of its “Business Aircraft Market Forecast 2011-30.”

The company’s rosy outlook focuses on three business categories: light, medium and large.

“Business jet utilization, as measured by movements, is up. Industry deliveries are not expected to improve significantly in 2011; however, signs of a market recovery are plenty, and it is expected that business aircraft market deliveries will return to growth in 2012,” the forecast states.

Long term, Bombardier says market drivers—wealth creation, increasing penetration in high growth economies, globalization of trade, replacement demand and market accessibility—“remain strong.”

Of the 24,000, $626 billion business jet deliveries, 10,000 of them worth $260 billion are anticipated for the 2011-2020 period and 14,000 aircraft worth $366 billion are anticipated for the 2021-2030 period.

“The long-term prospects for business aviation are solid and Bombardier expects the industry to achieve new heights in the next 20 years.”

Growth in North America

Despite some recent economic turbulence, the US economy has been on a recovery path since mid-2009. Many key areas are displaying

visible growth: employment, consumer spending, and exports, with the latter being fuelled by rapid growth in emerging markets. Corporate profits grew 8.5 per cent between Q1-2010 and Q1-2011.

The Canadian economy accelerated at a good rate in 2010. Economic growth should remain steady for the region over the 2011-2030 period, with a yearly average of 2.7 percent.

North America is forecast to receive the greatest number of new business jet deliveries

between 2011 and 2030 with 9,600 aircraft; 4,200 aircraft between 2011 and 2020; and 5,400 aircraft between 2021 and 2030. The 2010 fleet of 9,700 business jets will grow to 13,800 aircraft in 2030 resulting in a CAGR of approximately 2 per cent.

For the full report, visit Bombardier online.

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