Battery-electric vehicle concentration has been progressing slowly in Canada but it is about to pick up speed, according to a forecast from Desrosiers Automotive Consultants. PHOTO by Pexels.
For job shops serving the automotive sector one of the biggest future considerations will be the expected growth of the battery-electric vehicle (BEV) market. To that end, Desrosiers Automotive Consultants (DAC) has come up with a BEV forecast to the end of the decade that should be of help.
In 2021, BEVs accounted for 0.63% of the overall Canadian light vehicle fleet. By 2030, however, BEVs will occupy approximately 7.8% of the Canadian fleet, according to DAC’s forecast.
This represents “a significant portion and one which will start to impact certain sectors of the aftermarket,” according to DAC, which has been forecasting future vehicle fleet profiles for more than three decades using a proprietary model of vehicle sales, scrappage and exports.
“The presence of BEVs on Canadian roads has been increasing steadily but in a highly localized manner,” commented Andrew King, Managing Partner at DAC. He continued, “Given increased vehicle longevity and the continued dominant sales of internal combustion engine vehicles in many provinces, progress will be slow, but it is important that the aftermarket start transitioning immediately to meet the future needs of consumers.”
DAC also points out that BEV concentration is strongest right now in British Columbia, where BEVs account for 1.5% of vehicles on the road and Quebec where BEVs are 1.11% of the market. Somewhat paradoxically, Ontario trails both those provinces and the Canadian average with a BEV concentration of just 0.4% in 2021. This despite the fact the province is Canada’s automotive heartland and includes most of the investments in BEV manufacturing.
“Individual provincial mandates influenced a significant portion of this disparity, with vehicle manufacturers focusing limited BEV supply on jurisdictions where regulations and targets were starkest,” DAC commented.
DAC publishes a detailed forecast of Canadian vehicles on the road, including by fuel type, region, and vehicle age.