Export Development Canada (EDC) has released its fall Global Export Forecast, and expectations for 2019 show solid export growth.
Nationally, exports of goods are expected to grow another four per cent in 2019, following a six per cent boost this year.
“There have certainly been some ups and downs among the provinces this year,” said Peter Hall, chief economist at EDC. “It isn’t surprising, given the major economic and trade-related stories that Canadian exporters lived through during 2018. We expect conditions to stabilize in 2019, with growth forecast across every province and territory.”
Commodities and manufactured goods continue to make strong contributions. EDC says the aerospace sector is expected to see the biggest gains, rising 10 per cent in 2019 following a 19 per cent gain this year, when foreign sales reached $19 billion.
However automotive exports will dip this year before bouncing back somewhat for 2019. Foreign sales of auto parts and heavier transportation equipment will be steady, but exports of passenger cars and light vehicles are expected to fall slightly due to sales reaching peak levels in the US and related temporary plant closures.
Regionally the export outlook is mixed. The Maritimes can expect a rise in exports – except for PEI – while Ontario will see only a one per cent rise thanks to NAFTA/USMCA uncertainty and maxed-out US auto sales. Alberta is expected to follow up on its “banner” 2018 with three per cent growth in 2019, while BC’s 2019 increase of four per cent will match 2018’s.
You can see the full EDC report – and view Peter Hall’s video commentary – here.